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1st QUARTER 2016 Market Trends: 1Q16 | Northern & Central NJ

Economy

  • The US economy continued to shrug off fears of a global economic decline due to wage growth. Retail sales increased and jobs were gained.
  • According to the US Census Bureau News, the first quarter of 2016 e-commerce estimate increased 15.1% (±1.8%) from the first quarter of 2015, while total retail sales increased 3.3% (±0.4%) in the same period. E-commerce sales in the first quarter of 2016 accounted for 7.7% of total sales.
  • According to the National Association of Manufactures, production decelerated over the course of the past year, declining 1.2% on a year-over-year basis between January 2015 and January 2016. The proportion of firms planning to invest appears stable.
  • According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the real gross domestic income (GDI) — the value of the costs incurred and the incomes earned in the production of goods and services in the nation’s economy — increased 2.2% in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9% (revised) in the fourth quarter.
  • The price index for US imports rose 0.3% in March, led by higher fuel prices according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Office

  • Despite the slow field, the market fundamentals continue to improve. Asking rents have decreased for class B & C facilities, however Class A facilities have seen an uptick and remain healthy in markets such as the Jersey City Waterfront, Parsippany and the Short Hills sections of the state.

Retail

  • The Northern NJ retail market experienced a slight decline according to Costar. Vacancy rates increased to 5.5%, with quoted rental rates at $19.49 PSF NNN on average. Most of the retail growth in recent quarters have been from online sales.

Industrial

  • The velocity for leasing space continued its surge in 1Q16. Vacancy rates lowered to 6.2%, while asking rental rates increased to all time highs.
  • +/-3.7 MSF under contraction, most of the deliveries have been on a speculative basis.
  • Positive Absorption of 3.1 MSF, the majority of which occurred along the NJ Turnpike.
  • Total TEUs increased 2%, however there could be a brief slowdown at the port in the upcoming quarters due to retailers being over inventoried.

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